Monday, June 11, 2007

GAH!

Just learned from a player on the JCC team that the rumor is that David is going to play on their team next year. I know he and Jake became friends so that's entirely possible. If it's true, and his brothers follow, I'll be sick. Just sick.

Playoffs vs Angels

Steve and I are at his house doing the lineups, and nearly done with them at that, when we get a phone call letting us know that Cameron will be at the game. We’re very excited by this. It does mean that we have to redo our batting order and lineup, but we make it work. We decide to go with the following batting order:
Jeremy Ma, Nick, Cameron, Jeremy Me, Jared, Jeremy F, Austin, Alec, Justin, Matt S, Sean, and Noff.

Having to play the two games, hopefully back to back, means we have to use our pitchers wisely, and also balance out kids catching with their pitching. Steve and I both feel real good heading into the day. Hopefully our optimism will be justified.

Angels vs. Red Sox

We lose the coinflip and so we’re the away team. Their pitcher goes out there and retires us in order, including two strike outs. Jeremy Ma frustrates me by once again swinging at the first pitch. The kid does very well when he waits until later in the count, but he seems to swing all too often at that first pitch. It looks like we’ll have our own 1-2-3 inning, until their third batter doubles. Jeremy Ma walks the next guy, but we get the next batter to dribble out to first base to end the first inning 0-0.

We get going though in the second. Jeremy Me walks. Jared then singles. Frist strikes out, but it doesn’t matter when Austin doubles home Jeremy Ma. Alec then singles home Austin. Justin and Sherman keep our rally going by each singling, which drives home Alec. Unfortunately Sean and Noff each strike out to end the inning. Still four big runs is good news for us.

Jeremy Ma comes back out and facing the middle and bottom of their lineup makes things interesting after he walks a couple of guys but we get out of the inning without any damage thanks to a couple of timely strikeouts.

With us at the top of our order I hope we’ll get some runs going. Jeremy Ma does his part by singling. Unfortunately, Nick grounds into a fielders choice. Things don’t look good when Cameron strikes out for out number two. Jeremy and Jared walk, with Jared’s at bat proving to be especially crucial as Nick finds an opportunity to steal home on a passed ball. We get a run.

Jared is our next pitcher, and he just doesn’t have his normal stuff. After getting the last player in their lineup to ground out, we’re back at the top of their order. And their leadoff player doubles. Jared then walks the next three. Things look like they might be OK when we get the force out at home thanks to a nice throw by Justin at short. Unfortunately Jared walks another player, which is the second run he’s walked in. It also means we have to pull him. When I went out to the mound after his third walk he offered me the ball. I didn’t take it, but it shows that he was clearly rattled and perhaps I should have. Justin comes into pitch in relief. And unfortunately their batter rockets a 2 run double into left center. Fortunately Alec pulls down the next ball in right to end the inning, which could have been another run or two if he dropped it. Game is now tied at 4 going into the 4th.

Austin lines out to second base, on a nice play by the second baseman, AK from last year, to start the 4th. We then draw a couple of walks. Sherman is hit by the pitch, and it should be clear that this pitcher just doesn’t have it. Sean continues the walk parade, though Alec has already stolen home. Jsustin then steals home. Noff grounds into a fielders choice, but Jeremy Ma comes through with a single to drive home Sean, but Nick ends our rally with a strikeout. We get three big runs with another nice rally. 7-4 BoSox.

I tell Justin before he goes out there that he is going to be facing the bottom three batters in the order and it would be nice if we could get two outs out of that part of the lineup. We only get one out after a strikeout, followed by an at bat where their player fouls off no fewer than 6, and possibly more, 3-2 pitches. Justin finally walks the guy. Their next batter reaches on an error. When their leadoff player doubles, we let up the run. Happily we get the next two batters and no further damage is done. 7-5 BoSox.

We go down in order, including Cameron racking up a “hat trick” with his third strikeout of the day. He basically was up there looking at pitches which you simply can’t do with two strikes. I’m a little worried at this point, since Nick has not looked good lately for us and he’s our next pitcher. And indeed my worries seem justified when he walks the first two batters. However, he then settles down and strikes out the side. PHEW.

Jeremy F doubles to start of the inning, however, we can’t get him home and so we maintain a two run lead going into the bottom of the sixth. And Jeremy Me comes in and walks the first batter. I’m still feeling good about our chances though, as we’re once again at the bottom of their lineup. The next at bat is beautiful. We get a three pitch strike out and on the third strike the runner attempts to steal second. Jared throws him out for a crucial double play. Their last player strikes out and the Red Sox win the game.

This was a crucial game because it means we get to play two more and will either reach the championship or the 3rd/4th place game. We’re all very excited and upbeat after this first crucial victory. Our next opponent will be the A’s, who we’re 1-1 against, and so we know we should have a good game on our hands.

Friday, June 8, 2007

Playoff Preview

Saturday begins our playoffs. We were fortunate to receive a bye, as the brackets are done randomly. There is a good news bad news aspect to that, however. If we lose our first game we’re out of the playoffs. Teams that had a first round game get a consolation game. The good news, of course, is that if we win the first game we either get to play in the championship game or in a 3rd/4th place game.

We will be playing either the Marlins or the Angels for our first game. These would not be the teams I’d pick. We beat the Marlins rather decisively in one game and they beat us even more decisively in the second game we played. The Angels, on the other hand, are the only team we haven’t played, so we have no idea what to expect against them. Our second round game will be against either the A’s or the Orioles, both teams I’m pretty confident we could beat. But even if we don’t we’ll get another game. I just feel like we have such a good team this year, especially after the disaster that was last year, and will admit that I’ll be disappointed if we flame out n the first round.

The rules do change during the playoffs. Where as normally we play either 6 innings, starting no inning after an hour and a half, for the playoffs we play 6 innings. The big “controversy” this year is over a change of the 2-2-1-1 rule. In the regular season a team has to use at least 4 pitchers. However, for the playoffs Kevin decided to change things to a 2-2-2, cutting a pitcher out of the equation. This means teams that have three dominating pitchers have a big advantage over a team like ours where we rely on a bunch of different kids a little.

In order to avoid flaming out in the first round we not going to repeat last year’s mistake of saving our best pitcher for the last two innings. So Jeremy Ma is going to get the start. For the play-offs, as I’ll discuss shortly, you’re allowed to change your lineup for each game. This means that Jeremy should be facing the best players on their team, but hopefully he’ll bring his best stuff.

After two innings of Jeremy our plan is a little more flexible. I think our current plan is to do Jared for an inning or two followed by Justin, who might finish out the start of Jared’s inning and then pitch one of his own or just pitch one of his own, and then to have Jeremy Me ready for the 6th inning save. This leaves Nick out of the equation which might not make sense, because if he can find the strike zone he’s, hands down, our second best pitcher in terms of “stuff”. At the same time having a pitcher in reserve seems like a good thing, as we saw with Nick’s last performance.

Pitching Jared second is important because it will allow him to catch AFTER he’s pitched. Steve and I have agreed that until the last game on Sunday, if we get there, we want to limit our pitchers and catchers to no more than 3 innings combined between the two. That means if we’ll want to use Jared for two innings behind the plate, which I think we will, he’ll pitch just one. We can get an inning from Jeremy Ma, an inning or two from Jeremy Me, which means we’ll be relying on Alec for an inning behind the plate, which is hardly my favorite solution. All things being equal he’ll likely catch the first inning of Jeremy Ma, and I don’t know what after that. Having a catcher who catches the balls means more strikes. It’s not that Alec doesn’t catch the ball, but then again it’s not like he really does either.

In the field certain kids will be slotted into certain spots as well. Noff, for instance, has proven to be incredibly heads up at second base and we’re excited to put him there. Other kids will be more of a mystery. First base itself is a bit of a mystery. Jeremy F and Matt S both like playing there. Are they considerable downgrades from other options? I’m not sure. At the same time I don’t really feel good about them there. It’s likely Jeremy F will see some time there cause I feel considerably worse about putting him elsewhere. Matt S remains a bit of an enigma.

The nice thing is that we will only have to sit two an inning on Saturday, which makes scheduling SO much easier. The bad news is that we are sitting two an inning because Cameron will not be there. This is a major minus when it comes to our hitting. He is arguably the best hitter on the team and it’s not easy to just replace that. Though Cameron has been in a bit of a slump lately. I think the leadoff position is just not the right spot for him. However, it is perfect for Jeremy Ma who draws a lot of walks. After that I think we’re looking at something along the lines of Nick, Jared, Jeremy Me, Jeremy F. At the bottom of the lineup we’ve got (going up) Noff, Sean, and Matt S. That leaves Austin, Alec, and Justin somewhere in the middle. The nice thing is that unlike last year we don’t really have a part where we can’t count on ANY hits. If we can make their pitcher throw a lot of pitches in the first inning I really feel like we could do some damage in the second.

So I enter this weekend upbeat and hopeful, though quite nervous. I had some unease when we were entering the basketball tourney, but I knew we were still a favorite to get to the championship game. Here, I feel like we have the talent, but we’re not SO much better than the field that we’ll need some luck, or to at least avoid bad luck, to go forward.

I’m not sure if I’ll update Saturday or after the weekend on how we do, but you can count on a full report.

Wednesday, June 6, 2007

Game versus Cubs

Our last game of the regular season was a good one and so I think we’ll go inning by inning for this one.

Pre-Game
One of the schools had an event last night and of course we have three players from that school so we had just nine players, with Sean, Jeremy F, and Noff all missing. We decided that we were going to give Jared the chance to go two that he didn’t have on Saturday and also we wanted to give Nick one more shot, though under some pretty controlled conditions. Having only 9 players was nice for them since it meant a lot of opportunities to play the infield. Last time we played the Cubs we scored a whole bunch in the top of the 6th inning to come back and win the game by a run. We started the game late because the ump went to the wrong field.

The Game

Austin and Cameron both started off the game with strike-outs. Nick singled and then managed to steal second and third. Unfortunately, Mandel got robbed by the shortstop on a liner and so we don’t score in the inning. After recording two outs, the Cubs manage to load the bases on Jared, before a dribbler back to him at the mound which gets us the third out. 0-0 after 1

They switch pitchers here and we take advantage with a single by Justin, who steals second. When he steals third they over throw the third baseman, on a throw that shouldn’t have been made, and so we get a run and essentially a new inning. Alec strikes out. Jeremy Me singles, gets to second when Jared walks. He steals third and is singled home by Matt S. Austin then singles home Jared, before Cameron grounds out to end the inning. 3-0 BoSox

Jared gets a nice brake when Austin comes up with a well hit ball into center. The next batter rockets a double into deep left, which Cameron does a nice job of getting to and getting back in. Jared hits the next batter. The player on second then steals third on a wild pitch. Next pitch gets by Jeremy Me, who easily recovers the ball. He likely could have made the tag by himself, but he tosses it to Jared who just barely misses the tag. Jared bares down and strikes out that batter and gets the next batter to ground to first. 3-1 after two.

The supposed heart of our order, Nick, Jeremy Ma, and Justin, go down 1-2-3 including 2 strikeouts against the same pitcher we saw in the second. On comes Nick. Nick once again has a rough outing. He ends up lasting only six batters, walking four striking out two. So much for his going two innings. We bring in Justin who strikes out a player to end the inning. Only one run from that inning is fortunate and we maintain a 3-2 lead.

The next inning we stake off. Alec, Jeremy Me, and Jared all hit doubles, followed by a single by Matt S which drives in Jared for our third run. Austin hits into a double play and while Cameron singles Nick pops out. Still we get 3 more runs and go up 6-2.

Justin comes in for his second inning, strikes out the first batter, gets lucky when the second batter CRUSHES the ball, but it hits a tree giving Jeremy Me just enough time to catch the ball for out two. While the next batter walks, the last batter lines out to Justin at the mound. Justin looked very sharp in his inning and a third.

We go down in order in the 5th. The ump has to ump the next game and wants this to be the last inning. However, when Jeremy Ma mows them down, I point out that if we had started on time we still wouldn’t have hit an hour and a half of play time. I get him to agree to play the sixth. While Jeremy Me singles to start things off, we don’t do anything else.

In comes Jeremy Me with a four run lead to protect. And basically our fielding falls apart. There is just one bad fielding play after another. On one Alec calls for a ball which he can’t get to, but Cameron or Justin would have been able to get to. So that’s a hit. On another, it goes through Cameron’s legs at short on a not particularly well hit ball, he simply didn’t get down. On yet another Jeremy Ma fails to come up with a throw at first. Three runs end up scoring before we can get things back into control and we come away with a 6-5 victory. Jeremy Me pitched incredibly well, facing 8 batters on only 17 pitches. Our defense simply failed to come through for him.

Post Game

I give a very upbeat talk about how we played well. And even when things started to go poorly we didn’t lose our cool and we prevailed. We gave the game ball to Alec. Everyone felt real good going into the playoffs which is great. The twin’s mother took the time after the game to thank us for all that we’ve done with them which was real nice of her to do. Also nice was that Steve and I ran into Cameron and his mother at the restaurant we’d gone to after the game and so we had a great dinner talking to him and his mother.

There’ll be another update tomorrow as I outline the playoffs and how we’re approaching them.

Sunday, June 3, 2007

Finding Role Players

As I’ve previously mentioned, I’m a pretty big fan of The Wages of Wins (WoW) which suggests that scoring is overrated in the NBA, and things like rebounding and shooting efficiency are underrated. Incorporating these findings is something I try and do with the stats I keep for basketball. I very much try to use objective measures tempered by qualitative judgments.

So, for instance, Jack P showed up very poorly on Win Score, the measure used to simply calculate a player’s performance as he was an incredibly inefficient shooter, and one who’d take a lot of shots. However, we often did better with him on the court because his penetration on offense opened up opportunities, and his man rarely seemed to score on defense. This could be tracked using +/- but I don’t really have that capability so I have to just go off of my judgment.

Anyhow, today on the WoW blog, Dave Berri, one of the authors of the book, discusses how messed up talent evaluation is in the NBA. Basically most players in the NBA are role players, but players are drafted on the basis of the ability to become stars, something most will never become. In other words they’re focusing on the wrong things when evaluating players.

This very much hits home with me. At this point I expect to be coaching two travel teams next year, including one in HP. With my team last year (GL), I had 16 kids try-out. In a group of that size I can do some more time intensive drills which test rebounding, assists, steals, and other things which help teams win games but aren’t shooting and scoring. However, in a large group try-out, evaluating rebounding skills, in particular, is far more difficult and is an obstacle I’ll likely have to over come.

Though maybe I should have more faith in myself, as there is a strong correlation between the grade I gave players on a 1-5 scale and their final rank on the team in terms of rebounds per minute played.

Anyhow, the whole idea of how to structure an evaluation of players that is centered more around finding role players rather than stars and scorers is an interesting one and something I will continue to ponder in the next 3 or so months before I have to conduct tryouts once again.

Game versus White Sox

Well it seems fitting that after one of our best games of the season we come out and have trouble. The pitching was about what I expected. Well Nick in the first let up more than I’d have expected but that was due to Matt S catching him more than anything. Alec actually did better than I was expected and settled down after the first few batters. He was also helped out when Noff made a great play on a ball hit to him at second, tagging a runner going to second before throwing to first for the double play. Speaking of Noff he pitched his normal way, which is he gets the ball over the plate though he will be hit (he averages less than a walk an inning but about 3 hits an inning). Jeremy Me also had a nice inning in the fifth striking out two and basically looking in command the whole time, though he did allow a walk and a hit. Matt S, however, did not pitch well and had to be relieved in favor of Jared.

It looked like Jared was going to pitch two, however, Jeremy Me got the nod in the 5th after Alec through a hissy fit after striking out and his father removed him from the game meaning we needed Jared to catch. It was Alec’s second hissy fit of the game. After the game Steve and I talked to both twins as Austin had his own fit after he tried to stretch a double into a triple, against Steve’s orders, and got tagged out when he overran the base. It was very disappointing and we let them know it.

Also disappointing were our bats. Now granted we were missing Jeremy Ma and Cameron, two of our better hitters, but we just couldn’t get much going. Particularly frustrating was the third inning when the were not throwing a good pitcher and we just utterly failed to take advantage of the situation.

And, as there often is in a game of this sort, we had some bad luck without any countervailing good luck.

The play-offs start for us next Saturday. We used today as a last chance for people to get some innings in at various positions we won’t use them at again. We’ll get a little more serious on Tuesday, our last game, before our playoff debut. Despite yesterday’s debacle, I still feel very good about our chances. But I’ll do more of a playoff preview and end of the regular season wrap-up on Wednesday or Thursday.